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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON RAINFALL PATTERN IN CALABAR MUNICIPALITY FROM 2002-2014

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1.    Background of the study

Nigeria’s population and economic development are linked to climate sensitive activities including rainfall. An understanding of current and historical rainfall trends and variation is inevitable to the country’s future economic and tourism development. Rainfall is the most important natural factor that goes a long way in determining a lot of things especially agricultural production in Nigeria, especially in the southern part of Nigeria. The changes and variability associated with rainfall and the pattern of extreme high or low precipitation are very important for agriculture as well as the economic development of the state. It is a well-known fact that the pattern of rainfall is changing on both the global and the regional scales due to global warming (Hulme et al, 1998, Kayano, 2008). As the moves to encourage the agricultural sector in other toavoid food scarcity continues to gain ground and acceptability, information on rainfall variability is of essence for the design of water supply and supplemental agricultural irrigation schemes and the evaluation of alternative cropping and of soil water management plans. Much as long rainfall records are mostly available in many countries, little use is made of this information because of the unpredicted nature of the records.(Mina and Sayedul, 2012).

It is important to state that rainfall of Nigeria and West Africa in generally is influenced by the dynamics of continental air mass and maritime air mass which meet along a slanting surface called Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) (Odekunle, 2004). Varying degrees of convective activity and precipitation takes place at the south of ITD while little or no cloud development or precipitation occur in the northern part of ITD (Ilesanmi, 1972).

1.2.    Statement of the General Problem

The current pattern of rainfall in Cross River State has been a source of concern to the inhabitants, especially those who rely on it for their economic and tourist activities. Therefore, it is on this basis that this study seeks to examine the trend of rainfall in Calabar state with the view to ascertain the feasibility of government’s effort towards improved agriculture; to enhance food security in the state.

1.3.    Significance of the Study

This study would be of help to tourists in planning the time of their visits. This study would equally be of help to the policy makers of Cross River state, agriculturists and researchers who are interested in the rainfall pattern of Cross River state.

1.4.    Objectives of the Study

Ø To study the pattern of rainfall in calabar municipality.

Ø To know if rainfall pattern affects tourism and economic development.

1.5.    Scope of the study

This study is limited to the time series analysis on rainfall pattern in Calabar municipality from 2002-2014

1.6.    Research hypothesis

H0: Rainfall pattern does not affect the tourism and economic development of Calabar

H1: Rainfall pattern affects the tourism and economic development of Calabar

1.7.    Definition of terms

 Ø TREND:  a general direction in which a situation is changing or developing.

Ø VARIABILITY: the fact that something is likely to change

Ø TOURISM: the business activity connected with providing accommodation, services and entertainment for people who are visiting a place for pleasure.

Ø POLICY: a plan or action agreed or chosen by a political party, business or a government.

 REFERENCES

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Ekwe, Michael Chibuike, Joshua, Jonah Kunda, Igwe, Johnson Eze, and Osinowo, AdekunleAyodotun. (2014) Mathematical Study Of Monthly And Annual Rainfall Trends In Nasarawa State, Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Mathematics (IOSR-JM). Vol. 10, Issue 1 Ver. III. PP 56-62 www.iosrjournals.org 

Enete I.C. and. Ebenebe I.N. (2009) Analysis of rainfall distribution over Calabar during the little dry season (1990-2005), J. Geog and Regional Planning, Vol.2 No.7 PP.182-189. Climate of Calabar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calabar Accessed 20/8/2015.

Hulme, M., Osborn, T.J. and Johns, T.C. (1998) Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: Comparison of observations with HADCM2 simulations. Geophysical Re-search Letters, 25, 3379-3382.

Kayano, M.T. and Sansígolo, C. (2008) Interannual to decadal variations of precipitation and daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures in southern Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 97, 81-90. doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0050-4

Mina MahbubHossain and SayedulAnam. (2012) Identifying the dependency pattern of daily rainfall of Dhaka station in Bangladesh using Markov chain and logistic regression model Agricultural Sciences, Vol.3, No.3, 385-391 http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ as.2012.33045

Olaniran, O. J., and G.N. Summer. (1989) Climate change in Nigeria:change in the rainfall receipt per rain day. Weather: Vol. 43 No.6. 242-248.

Olaniran, O. J., and G.N. Summer. (1990) Long-term variations of annual and growing season rainfalls in Nigeria. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 41 : 41-53.

Olaniran, O.J. (1990). Changing patterns of rain -days in Nigeria. GeoJournal. 22(1): 99: 107- 137. Statistics: Calabar, Nigeria". The Weather Network. Retrieved 2010-06-Accessed 20/8/2015