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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTED CASES OF BREAST CANCER

ABSTRACT

The data for this research work titled statistical analysis of reported cases of Breast cancer was collected from the National Hospital Abuja. The statistical tool used for the analysis of the data is Time Series. The time series model gave a slope of -1.2 which indicates that new cases of the disease is  gradually decreasing.

CHAPTER ONE

1.0   INTRODUCTION

Breast cancer (Malignant breast neoplasm) is cancer originating from the tissue most commonly from the inner living of the milk ducts or the lobules that supply the ducts with milk. According to one of the breast cancer journals (www.webmd.com) the size, stage, rate of growth and other characteristics of the tumor determine the series of treatment. Treatment may include surgery, drugs, chromosomal therapy and (radiation and immunotherapy) surgical removal of the tumor provides the benefits with surgery alone being capable of producing a cause in long term disease free survival. Several chemotherapy regime are  commonly in addition to surgery. Most forms of thermotherapy  kills cells that are dividing rapidly anywhere in the breast that were missed by the surgery which usually extends survival somewhat, although, radiation exposure to the heart may cause heart failure in the future. Some breast cancers are sensitive to hormones such as estrogen and progesterone which makes it possible to treat them blocking the effects of these hormones.

1.1  BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

Breast cancer surgery in the 18th century, because of its visibility, breast cancer was the form of cancer most often described in ancient documents, because autopsies  were rare, cancer of the internal organ were essentially invisible to ancient medicine, breast cancer however could be felt through the skin and in its advanced state often developed into fumigating lesion, the junior would become necrotic (die from the inside causing the tumor to appear to break up) and ulcerate through the skin, weeping fetid dark fluid.  The  oldest description of cancer was discovered in Egypt and dates back to approximately 1600BC. The Edwin Smith pangrus described eight cases of tumors or ulcers of the breast that were treated by cauterization, the writing says about the disease, there is no treatment for centuries, physicians describes similar cases in their practices with the same conclusion. Ancient, from the time of Greeks through the 17th century was based on humoralism and thus believed that breast cancer was generally caused by imbalances in the fundamental fluids of black biles, alternatively, patients often saw it as divine punishment.

In the 18th century, a wide variety of medical explanations were proposed, including a black of sexual activity, physical injuries to the breast, curdled breast milks and various forms of lymphatic blockages, either internal or due to restrictive clothing. In the 19th century, Scottish surgeon John Rodman said that there is a fear of cancer’s tendency to run in families. Although, breast cancer was known in ancient times, it was uncommon until the 19th century when improvements in sanitation and control of deadly infectious diseases result in dramatic increase in life span. Previously, most women had died too young to have developed breast cancer. Additionally, early and frequent child bearing and breast feeding probably reduced the rate of breast cancer development in these women who did survive to middle age. Ancient medicine believed that the cause was systematic, rather than local and because surgery carried a high mortality rate. The referred treatment tended to be pharmacological rather than surgical. Breast cancer journal (www.webmd.com).

According to society of women’s health research in the US (2005) both incidence and death rates for breast cancer have been divining in the last few years in native Americans and Alaskan, the research also indicated that breast cancer  remains the most feared disease even though heart disease is exaggerated than the risk of breast cancer. According to “world cancer report 2008”, breast cancer caused 455,503 deaths worldwide (13.7% of cancer deaths in women) breast cancer is more than 100 times common in women than in men, although, males tend to have poorer outcome due to delay in diagnosis. The Federal Capital Territory like other states in Nigeria had suffered great pain from this deadly disease even before the establishment of National Hospital Abuja on the 22nd of May 1999 by the federal government of Nigeria and was commissioned by the former head of state, his Excellency, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar and opened its door to patients on the 11th Oct. 1999.

1.2  STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Breast cancer is one of the dangerous disease that affect women in the world, causing pains in the faces of our mother and even men in the society at large. This has prompted the researcher to determine whether the reported cases of breast cancer are on the increase or decrease within the period of ten years.

1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The aim of this study is to analyze whether the rate of breast cancer is on the increase or decrease within a period of ten years. The objectives of this research work are:

To determine the trend movement of the disease.

To forecast the trend of the disease.

To determine if the proportion of survival is equal among the specified age groups.

1.4 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY.

This research work will be useful to the Government, the medical centers, private and public health practitioners, researchers who may like to investigate more about the disease and to the society at large.

1.5 DELIMITATION OF THE STUDY.

This research work covers a period of ten years and was restricted to National Hospital Abuja.

1.6 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY.

Due to the financial constraints and time factor, the researcher was unable to cover the whole health center in Abuja to collect data for this research work. Therefore, the researcher limited her findings to national hospital Abuja.

1.7 RESEARCH QUESTIONS.

The researcher wants to impact more knowledge on breast cancer and to do this, the following questions are stated below:

What are the causes of breast cancer?

Can breast cancer be prevented or controlled?

1.8 STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS.

HO: The rate of breast cancer is on the decrease

HI: The rate of breast cancer is not on the decrease.

1.9 DEFINITION OF TERMS.

Malignant Tumor: A mass of cells growing on part of the body where they usually cause medical problems.

Cancer: A serious disease in which there is an abnormal growth in the body cell and kill the normal body cells.